European allies draft evacuation plans through NATO’s ‘Achilles heel’ as spies warn of Russian attack within weeks

Poland and Lithuania are developing evacuation plans for the Suwalki Gap, a strategically important corridor connecting the Baltic states with the rest of NATO, amid growing concerns about potential Russian military and hybrid threats. The Suwalki Gap is a roughly 60-mile stretch along the Polish-Lithuanian border situated between Belarus, a close Russian ally, and Russia’s heavily militarised Kaliningrad exclave.

Western defence planners have long regarded the corridor as strategically significant because any successful attempt to cut it off could disrupt the main land connection between NATO members Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and the rest of the alliance. Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre said Vilnius and Warsaw were working towards an agreement establishing procedures that could be used during a potential evacuation.

“Procedures, logistics, and infrastructure capabilities are being analysed together with colleagues from Poland, and the plan itself should be developed once an agreement is reached between the two countries,” the centre’s chief, Vilmantas Vitkauskas, said. The planning comes as Lithuania conducts nationwide exercises designed to test its response to possible emergencies, including hybrid warfare, cyberattacks and sabotage.

Around 20 Polish officials reportedly travelled to Lithuania to participate in exercises testing border procedures, while approximately 3,000 officials and 1,000 volunteers are involved in drills scheduled to continue until October 2. The evacuation planning could also include measures relating to border controls and mobilisation, including procedures intended to prevent people occupying certain critical roles from leaving the country during a major crisis.

 

The preparations come amid heightened concern among European governments over alleged Russian sabotage, drone incursions and other hybrid activities. Moscow has denied or disputed responsibility for various incidents attributed to it by Western governments. Danish intelligence has also warned about the possibility of Russia escalating military pressure against NATO, including scenarios involving long-range strikes on alliance infrastructure or a limited incursion into a neighbouring country.

Such assessments describe possible scenarios rather than confirming that a Russian attack will occur within a specific timeframe.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has separately warned about what he described as Russian preparations for “hybrid” drone and missile operations targeting countries supporting Ukraine.

The Suwalki Gap remains particularly important to NATO because of its location between Belarus and Kaliningrad. In a conflict, control or disruption of the corridor could complicate the movement of allied personnel and equipment between Poland and the Baltic states. Poland, Lithuania and other NATO members have consequently increased military exercises and contingency planning in the region as tensions between Russia and the alliance remain elevated.