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The year 2026 is on course to become the second-hottest year ever recorded, with global temperatures continuing to rise amid human-driven climate change, the EU's climate monitor said Friday.
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) made the projection in its latest climate assessment released on Friday, November 6, saying there was an estimated 80 per cent probability that 2026 would rank as the second-warmest year since records began.
According to the climate monitoring agency, there is also a 20 per cent chance that this year's average global temperature could equal or surpass the previous record set in 2024.
Copernicus said global temperatures between January and October placed 2026 as the second-warmest year-to-date, behind only 2024.
The agency also reported that October 2026 was the warmest October ever recorded, with the average global surface air temperature reaching 15.35°C, approximately 0.90°C above the 1991–2020 average.
"October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates Copernicus.
"An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities," she said.
The latest projections suggest that the average global temperature for the entire year could settle between 1.56°C and 1.61°C above pre-industrial levels, making 2026 the second calendar year, after 2024, to exceed the 1.5°C threshold.
Scientists have warned that the warming trend is being driven primarily by human activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, while the developing El Niño weather phenomenon is adding to the rise in global temperatures.
El Niño, a natural climate pattern associated with warmer ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, can influence weather patterns worldwide and temporarily increase global average temperatures.
Copernicus also warned that the average global temperature across 2023 to 2026 is expected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, highlighting the accelerating pace of climate change.
The 1.5°C threshold is a central goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, which seeks to limit long-term global warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to keep it within 1.5°C.
However, scientists clarify that exceeding the threshold in a single year does not, by itself, mean the long-term Paris Agreement target has been breached.
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